I was very glad to read this op-ed piece which is titled “Getting Paid For Getting It Wrong: Bad Brokers Get Fired, Bad Pundits Get Hired”. I think in general, most people are in some way or another in denial of reality (I am probably one of those people, so somebody please help me and tell me what I’m doing wrong!)… so when some guy on TV chimes in with his opinion which has been carefully calculated and weighed against important and trustworthy evidence… and it supports some aspect of reality which you just can’t bear to acknowledge, you will change the channel (”I hate this guy”) and instead you will watch the guy who gives his cleverly worded opinion which agrees with your own view of the world (”That’s more like it!”).
Pundits are always bending the truth regardless of which side they are on. By taking a side at all, they are simplifying a complex issue into one dimension. John Stewart’s must-watch appearance on Crossfire (which prompted the show’s cancellation) was a great and rare illustration of when moderation has actually beaten out extremism in the media. As he says, debate makes for wonderful theater, but by allowing ourselves to be swayed by one side of the theater is to forget how important it is to have good government. It is quite obvious that the Bush administration has a wonderful PR team: they spin everything the way their voters want to hear it. The truth is not something which they feel the public needs to know. The democrats are in a tight spot because their voter base tends to be obsessed with the truth. How do you satisfy the democratic voters who want the truth and still win over Joe “Swing State” Voter who is somewhat susceptible to spin tactics?
I think it’s fair to say that reality has a far lower value than fantasy… in the entertainment industry. When it comes to managing money, programming computers, mixing chemicals, building a bridge, etc… we value the reality more than the fantasy. Obviously, when we want to be entertained, we want something incredible, not something mundane. It’s a rare person that is actually entertained by reality. However, I think it’s a wonderful sign that a book about statistics and economics (Freakonomics) is a smashing success. There is also the sudden popularity of Malcolm Gladwell (author of Blink and The Tipping Point). Maybe to get people interested in reality, it takes an amazing person like Gladwell to make the fascinating complexities accessible to a general audience.